Last fall I had a mini spiral trying to decide when to apply early decision vs early action, because everyone made ED sound like the obvious “serious applicant” move.
What helped me was making a super basic 3-question test: Is it my clear first choice? Can my family afford it if the aid package is just okay? Would I still want to compare other schools?
If the answer to the first two was yes and the third was no, ED made sense. If I wanted flexibility, merit comparisons, or had any real uncertainty about cost, EA was the safer strategy.
My tip is to decide based on finances and fit first, not just the rumored acceptance boost. A tiny boost is not worth being stuck somewhere you can’t afford.